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After taking a comprehensive look at global trade changes, JPMorgan strategists have concluded that some of Apple’s Chinese suppliers may benefit from the trend of supply chain diversification. The October 18 report looked at 10 aspects of “the great supply chain shift and the rise of trading cartels”. The analysis ranged from concerns about China’s dominance in global supply chains and overcapacity to US policy. US–China tensions and talk of “decoupling” came to the fore during Donald Trump’s first term as President. Demands for supply chain diversification arose during the COVID-19 pandemic. Republican candidate Trump has threatened to impose 60% tariffs on China if re-elected president next month. Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is expected to maintain the Biden administration’s tough stance on Chinese technology, and call for the return of high-end manufacturing to the U.S. “Tariff war 2.0 could disrupt global supply chains,” JPMorgan analysts said. The speed of transfer will also increase.” , “Our EM equity strategy team highlights some MSCI EM companies (from India, ASEAN and Mexico) that could be potential beneficiaries of supply chain shifts and manufacturing sector growth in their respective markets,” the report said. “In addition, they highlight names that could benefit from Apple’s supply chain relocation,” the report said. Apple plans to increase production of iPhones in India, while some of its China suppliers have invested in factories abroad. Analysts’ list of supply chain diversification beneficiaries includes three names traded in mainland China: Wingtech Technology, Luxshare Precision Industry and Goertech. JPMorgan has rated Wingtec and Luxshare overweight, while Goertec is neutral. According to their websites, all three companies are already manufacturing in several parts of the world outside China. Apple’s latest supplier list shows that the company is also purchasing from Goertek and Luxshare in Vietnam as well as China. Last year’s supplier list showed Apple had purchased from Wingate’s factories in Malaysia and the Philippines. The latest version lists only Wingtech’s China operations. Other Chinese suppliers have expanded business with their customers overseas. Shenzhen-based smartphone company Oppo said that when it opened its factory in Indonesia, it also helped about 10 of its suppliers move there. Foreign revenues of Chinese companies have surged over the past few years, and a portfolio of companies with high foreign sales exposure has generated 9.5% annual alpha from 2019 to 2023, Bernstein analysts said in their report this month on China’s global manufacturing growth. “We believe this is going to be a major source of returns for investors going forward as Chinese companies go global and take advantage of their low-cost, high-quality product strategy outside China,” the analysts said. Picking up.” Apple supplier Luxshare is also one of their top choices. Bernstein forecasts outperform for the stock with a price target of 50 yuan ($7.02), which is 15% above where shares closed on Friday. “Luxshares has a large site in Vietnam that is involved in the assembly of Apple wearables and non-Apple business. Overseas capacity represents about 25% of Luxshare’s total capacity,” Bernstein analysts said. However, for Apple’s iPhone, Bernstein analysts are less optimistic that India can become a viable alternative to China. He expects Luxshare to gain a share in smartphone assembly in China. Apple is scheduled to release quarterly results on October 31. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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