Cotton production in India likely to fall by more than 7% in reduced area, crop loss

India’s cotton production for the 2024-25 season is estimated to decline 7 per cent to 302 lakh bales, according to a report released on Tuesday by trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI). The reason for this decline is considered to be reduction in the area under cotton cultivation and damage caused by excessive rainfall. This kharif season, cotton sowing has declined by nearly 10 per cent, with area falling to 112.9 lakh hectares from 126.9 lakh hectares last year, much lower than the average of 129.34 lakh hectares.

India’s cotton imports are expected to rise to 25 lakh bales in the new season starting October 1, from 17.5 lakh bales a year ago, according to the Cotton Association of India (CAI). In contrast, the country’s cotton exports are estimated to decline to 18 lakh bales from 28.5 lakh bales a year ago.

This projected decline in production is a matter of concern for both the domestic textile industry and global markets, as India is one of the largest producers and exporters of cotton. Unseasonal rains have significantly affected major cotton growing areas, causing crop damage and reduced yields.

In addition to the challenges of local weather, the decline in cotton-planted area reflects farmers’ turn to more profitable crops or crops that require less water. Motivated by higher potential yields and lower risks compared to cotton, an increasing number of farmers have switched from cotton to groundnut or rice cultivation.

A decline in cotton production could increase domestic cotton prices, potentially impacting raw material costs for India’s textile sector, which depends heavily on cotton. Global cotton markets could also be impacted, as reduced supply from India could impact global trade flows and pricing.