UN report warns that if action is not taken now the temperature could rise by 3.1 degrees Celsius

Annual greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, and urgent action must be taken to stop a catastrophic rise in temperatures and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, according to a new report released Thursday. United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).

As climate impacts intensify globally, nations must dramatically strengthen ambition and action in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target will be reached within a few years, the joint Nation Emissions Gap Report 2024 Is flagged. Simply continuing current policies will result in a 3.1°C temperature increase.

“The time of climate crisis has arrived,” said UNEP Executive Director. inger andersen“We need global mobilization on a scale and speed never seen before, starting right before the next round of climate pledges.” If not, she warned, a target of 1.5 degrees Celsius has been set to limit rising temperatures. paris agreement On climate change it “will soon be over, and will be replaced by an intensive care unit below two degrees Celsius”.

Climate goals may disappear

Launched at the COP16 global biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, the report compares where global emissions are going with current country commitments and the gap between limiting warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and keeping them in line with 1.5 degrees Celsius. Tracks the difference. Temperature targets set in the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.

According to the report, the 1.5°C target will be missed in a few years unless nations collectively commit to cutting annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42 percent by 2030 and 57 percent by 2035 in the next round of nationally determined contributions. Are not committed and do not support it. With quick action.

‘Wobbling on a planetary tight rope’

Without dramatic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the world could face an inevitable and catastrophic 3.1°C temperature rise, according to the report, which comes at a time when governments are failing to fully deliver on their promises. Are.

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres That said, the emissions gap is not an abstract concept. Indeed, there is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters. “We are teetering on a planetary tight rope,” he warned in a video message. “Either leaders will close the emissions gap or we will be trapped in a climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most.

Affordable technologies can help

The COP29 UN climate change conference, starting in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November should serve as a launchpad for detailed discussion on ambitious new national plans, Guterres said, adding that the event would be “an opportunity for countries to take new national climate action.” Starts the clock “Planning for next year.”

“Governments have agreed to align these plans with the 1.5°C target,” he said. This means they must reduce all greenhouse gas emissions and cover the entire economy, emphasizing progress in every sector. He urged the largest economies – G20 members, who account for about 80 percent of all emissions – to lead the process.

There is hope, the UN chief stressed. “Today’s report shows that affordable, existing technologies can cut emissions between 2030 and 2035 to meet the 1.5°C limit, but only with increased ambition and support,” he said.

Clean energy could change trajectory

The report shows significant potential to reduce emissions by 31 gigatonnes of CO₂ by 2030, about 52 per cent of reported emissions in 2023, and by 41 gigatonnes by 2035, helping to meet the 1.5°C target for both years. Does.

Promoting the use of solar photovoltaic and wind energy could contribute 27 percent to the total reduction in 2030 and 38 percent by 2035. Additionally, forest conservation can provide about 20 percent of the required reductions in both years. According to the report, other effective strategies include increasing energy efficiency, electrifying various sectors and transitioning from fossil fuels in buildings, transportation and industry.

However, the report notes that realizing even a fraction of this potential will require unprecedented international cooperation and a comprehensive approach from governments that focuses on maximizing socio-economic and environmental benefits while minimizing trade-offs. Will concentrate.